Objective: To establish a mathematical model of fracture seam load relationship of C1-1, C2-1, C3-1 distal radius fractures fixed by splinting with different thickness pads by using static analysis, experimental design and cuckoo support vector machine prediction. Methods: The software Workbench and MATLAB were mainly used, including three dimensional solid model modeling, mechanical analysis, experimental design, and prediction model establishment. The shape of each tissue in the forearm was obtained from the CT image to establish the corresponding stereo model, noise reduction, assembly and other processes to achieve modeling. The mechanical situation of bone tissue under a condition was obtained by applying load to the model according to the load data measured by the workbench. Then through the experimental design method, the mechanical conditions of bone tissue under various conditions of applied load are simulated. Finally, support vector machine regression prediction is improved by cuckoo to obtain mathematical models for each fracture type. Results: Through the above work, the load is applied to the fixed position of 12 pressure pads divided by the B surface, and 460 samples are solved in the DOE module in the Workbench by the design of experiment method, and 400 of the 460 samples are randomly selected as the training set to obtain the mathematical model. The remaining 60 samples were used as the test set to compare with the prediction results of the mathematical model. It can establish a high-precision mathematical model about the load of different loads on the fracture seam at the fixed position of the splint fixed medium pressure pad. Conclusion: It is known that the mechanical effects of different thicknesses of the pressure pad at different positions are used to predict the stress of the fracture seam, and the prediction value is compared with the simulation value. The prediction accuracy of the model is 99.659%, and the lowest is 95.653%. From the accuracy analysis, there is a fuzzy mathematical relationship between the load of the pad and the load at the fracture seam, that is, the support vector machine prediction model is effective. The study of the effect of the pressure pad fixation mode and the effect of the pressure pad fixation force on the fracture seam is conducive to the combination of traditional fixation splinting and modern science and technology, and provides a reference for the design and update of external fixation equipment for distal radius fractures.