基于步态特征的老年人跌倒风险预警研究
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作者单位:

1.合肥师范学院;2.合肥师范学院体育科学学院;3.安徽医科大学第二附属医院

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G804

基金项目:

2016年度安徽高等学校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2016A582);2015年安徽省自然科学(1508085QA18);合肥师范学院第二批“136人才项目工程”科研资助项目(HS136001)。


Research on Early Warning of Falling Risk for the Elderly Based on Gait Characteristics
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Affiliation:

1.Hefei Normal University Department of Sports Science;2.China;3.The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University

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    摘要:

    目的:根据六种步态的测试参数分别构建老人跌倒风险预警模型。方法:使用数字化场地采集有跌倒史和无跌倒史老年人的六种步态参数,采用二项logistic回归分析法,建立预测老人跌倒风险的回归方程,构建跌倒预警模型。结果:(1)根据六种步态的测试参数所构建的回归方程均具有统计学意义,预测总体正确率由高到底依次为:闭眼正走(97.1%)、睁眼倒走(92.9%)、闭眼倒走(88.6%)、睁眼正走(87.1%)、睁眼上下转头(85.7%)、睁眼左右转头(82.9%)。(2)所构建的老年人跌倒风险预警模型主要包括判定、测试、提取、计算、预警五个步骤,适合在实验室内对老年人进行步态测试与跌倒风险评估。结论:(1)六种步态的测试参数都能够预测老年人的跌倒风险,其中闭眼正走的预测效果最好,是预测老年人跌倒风险的最佳步态。(2)所构建的老年人跌倒风险预警模型用于预测65-75岁老年人一年内的跌倒风险,并可根据跌倒概率发出预警,对预防老年人跌倒具有积极作用。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To construct an early warning model of fall risk for the elderly based on six kinds gait parameters. Method: A digital field was used to collect six kinds gait parameters for the elderly with a history of falls and no history of falls, binomial logistic regression analysis was used to establish a regression equation for predicting the risk of falls in the elderly, and an early warning model was constructed. Results: (1) The regression equations constructed according to the six kinds gait parameters are statistically significant. The overall correct rate is predicted from high to low: closed eyes walk forward(97.1%), open eyes walk backward (92.9%), closed eyes walk backward (88.6%), open eyes walk forward(87.1%), open eyes up and down (85.7%), open eyes turn left and right (82.9%).(2) The constructed early warning model for fall risk of the elderly mainly includes five steps of judgment, test, extraction, calculation and early warning, which is suitable for gait testing and evaluation of the elderly in the laboratory. Conclusions: (1) Six kinds gait parameters can predict the fall risk of the elderly. The best predictive effect of closed eyes walk forward is the best gait to predict the fall risk of the elderly. (2) The established early warning model of fall risk for the elderly is used to predict the fall risk within the age of 65-75 years old, and can provide early warning based on the probability of falling, which has a positive effect on preventing falls in the elderly.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-03
  • 最后修改日期:2019-11-14
  • 录用日期:2019-11-19
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